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Week 12 NFL Picks

Jon — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 16:00:10 +0000

Wow, it’s been awhile! The world of sports gambling is such a roller coaster that it is difficult to do the proper amount of DD as it relates to sports wagering, work a full-time job, and concurrently maintain a blog. With that being said, after an almost 3 month hiatus, here are my Week 12 NFL picks:

New England Patriots -24 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Boy, I hate giving up 3 TD’s and a FG, but I can basically buy a new car on the money I’ve made backing the Patriots this year. I don’t see how Philly will score more than a few points in this one.
Denver Broncos +1 on the road against the Bears. Amazingly, Denver is tied for first in the AFC West. It looks like their run defense has solidified over the last 2 weeks. Throw into the mix that the Bears running back, Cedric Benson, has been a monumental disaster for the 4-6 Bears.
Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 at home against the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers have dropped 4 in a row and are now 0-4 at home this year. Somehow, they are a respectable 4-2 on the road. I just can’t see the Panthers dropping to 0-5 at home, even with a fossil (Testaverde) or a sack-waiting-to happen (Carr) at quarterback, though I wouldn’t bet much on this game.

Notre Dame 10 Point Underdogs At Home

Jon — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 15:20:29 +0000

Notre Dame is getting 10 points at home against 3-0 Michigan State Spartans. Notre Dame, 0-3, has yet to score an offensive touchdown. The upcoming schedule for the Fighting Irish becomes ridiculously difficult after today’s game, with games against Purdue, UCLA, Boston College, and USC in the next 4 weeks. If they don’t win today, the Irish may have to wait until Navy, Air Force, or Duke in November for their first win. I’m backing the Irish at home. Michigan State isn’t exactly a college football juggernaut, having beaten some lower level talent in the last 3 weeks. Hopefully Notre Dame can keep it close. Notre Dame +10.

Backing the Brew Crew at -105

Jon — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 22:31:17 +0000

The Brewers are only 1 game behind (0 in the loss column) the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Milwaukee opens up a huge series in Atlanta against the Braves tonight. Big game pitcher Jeff Suppan (10-11 record, 4.72ERA) will get the start for the Brewers. Atlanta will counter with right-hander Jeff Bennett, who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors since 2004. The Brewers, with 11 games remaining, need to win as many games as possible in order to stay in the playoff picture. This happens to be a very winnable game for the Brewers. My money is on the Brew Crew. At -105, the line is cheap. Hammer it.

Betting the Mets on the Runline

Jon — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 12:28:49 +0000

The New York Mets are doing their best to choke away first place in the NL East, a spot they have occupied for almost 2 years now. The Phillies, once a wildcard long shot, now find themselves only 1.5 games behind the Mets and knocking on the door. New York has lost 5 games in a row (for the third time this season - they haven’t lost six in a row in a few years). Tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals in Washington is THE single biggest game of the regular season for the Mets in years. The youngster Mike Pelfrey will go against the Nationals Matt Chico. As the Mets bullpen has imploded in recent weeks, we find out that Moises Alou (and his current 22 game hitting streak) may be out for the season due to a re-injury of the quadriceps. Despite the Mets recent problems, they HAVE to win tonight. Plain and simple. Backing the Mets straight up costs -149, but backing them on the runline boosts the payout to +115. I don’t like to bet large amounts on baseball games, but I have a pretty sizable bet on the Mets tonight. Good luck.

Monday Night Football: Eagles Favored by 6 1/2

Jon — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 22:31:13 +0000

The 0-1 Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 6 1/2 points at home against the 1-0 Washington Redskins. The Eagles, coming off a subpar performance against the Packers last weekend, look to rebound against a team they have dominated in recent years. The Eagles have won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams, including a 27-3 blowout win last season in Philadelphia. Since that loss, Jason Campbell has taken over the starting QB position for the Redskins and has posted a record of 3-5, including an overtime win against the Dolphins last week. The Eagles are generally overrated as is their quarterback, but I believe they have enough firepower and defense to cover the spread at home against a below-average opponent. The Redskins were 1-5 against the NFC East last season. I don’t see much improvement this season. Take the Eagles -6 1/2.

Heavyweight Matchup: San Diego at New England

Jon — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 23:27:58 +0000

This is the game everyone has been waiting for! Fresh off their videotape spying incident, the New England Patriots look to improve to 2-0 as they face the 1-0 San Diego Chargers at home. The Patriots are 3 point favorites in a re-match of last season’s playoff matchup. In that playoff game, NE came from behind and won in improbable fashion as San Diego absolutely choked the game away. In the offseason, New England added key offensive players and look to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. San Diego, meanwhile, still a Super Bowl contender, has remained relatively unchanged from last season. They are coming off a win at home against Chicago, but were not overly impressive. If the game were in San Diego, I’d give the Chargers the nod, but this game is in New England. The Patriots have too much firepower. Until San Diego proves they can win a big game, I’ll have to fade them in these situations. New England -3.

Take New Orleans Giving up 4 Points

Jon — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 14:22:47 +0000

The New Orleans Saints were shelled by the Indianapolis Colts 41-10 in their opening game. Despite the result of that game, there were two positives to take away from that game: (1) they already played the best team in the NFL - it only gets easier from here and (2) they received two extra days of rest thanks to playing on Thursday. The Saints travel to Tampa Bay this afternoon, where they are 4 point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If the game last week against Indy had been closer, this line would certainly be much greater than a measly 4 points. I still believe New Orleans is a playoff team and the line “appears” very low here. Tampa Bay hasn’t proven anything yet and showed nothing in last week’s 14 point loss to Seattle. Look for a Saints bounce-back this week and take New Orleans -4.

Will Eli Manning Play?

Jon — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 13:56:33 +0000

It’s a big secret. Will Eli Manning start for the NY Giants today or will he be deactivated? Initial reports indicated Manning will be out a month due to a shoulder injury suffered in last week’s game against the Cowboys. Just as soon as those reports hit the newswires, the Giants denied the reports and claimed Manning was merely day-to-day. The 0-1 Giants are favored by 2 1/2 points at home against the 1-0 Green Bay Packers. The total is set at 38 points. If Eli Manning does not play this game for NY, there is virtually no chance of Big Blue winning this game. The Giants backup, Jared Lorenzen, aptly nicknamed the “Hefty Lefty,” has attempted less than 5 passes in his NFL career. He is quite large and immobile - probably a sack waiting to happen. The Giants will also play without starting running back Brandon Jacobs. Instead, Jets reject, Derrick Ward will get the start this afternoon. The Giants defense was atrocious against Dallas last week. The secondary was burned on every big play and the linebackers non-existent. Tony Romo passed for more yards per completion against the Giants tissue-paper defense than any other quarterback in over 30 years. The 38 points is a gift. Due to the uncertain nature of Eli’s status and the inherent risk of a 2 1/2 point line, I would tease this game to Green Bay +8 1/2 and over 32, with the juice at the standard -110. Good luck!

NFL betting: Week 2 Analysis

Jon — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 04:52:13 +0000

My, how perceptions change week to week. The betting lines appear completely different in Week 2 as compared to the Week 1 lines. Before the NFL kicked off play last week, the majority of teams were unproven. You had a hunch, but you didn’t really know who was going to shine and who was going to stink up the joint. The narrowness in spreads reflected this uncertainty. Now, with one week of NFL action already in the books, linesmakers have a better sense of who is good and who is not (yes, Oakland still sucks). Spreads have jumped more than 50% this week, with the average spread in Week 2 standing tall at 6.28 points. In fact, five games feature spreads of 10 points or more. These large favorites include Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago - all home teams. The big question becomes: Can the favorites cover these large spreads? Looking back to Week 1, we find that:

The favorites were 9-5-2 ATS and 13-3 straight up.
Home favorites were 7-3-2 ATS and 9-3 straight up.
Road favorites were 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up.

The dominance of the favorites in Week 1 is apparent. Backing the dog resulted in financial loss, unless you were able to identify the strong dogs and bet accordingly. Another interesting tidbit from Week 1 was the dominance of the Under bet. Playing the under won an astounding 11 of the 16 games. The average total line for Week 1 coming into play, across all 16 games, stood at 40.65 points. That number has dropped significantly to 37.59 points this weekend. So, in effect, the linesmakers are telling us that the games, on average, will be lower-scoring affairs, with the victors winning by more significant margins. As always, we will have to see how it plays out!

For updated NFL lines, check out:

College Football Top 25 Matchups

Jon — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 14:45:19 +0000

There are three top 25 games on tap for today. Here they are, along with the current lines:

(22) Tennessee at (5) Florida. Florida -7 1/2, O/U 55.
(21) Boston College at (15) Ga. Tech. Ga. Tech -6 1/2, O/U 48.
(1) USC at (14) Nebraska. USC -9 1/2, O/U 51.

To monitor these odds and others throughout the day, check out: