Wow, it’s been awhile! The world of sports gambling is such a roller coaster that it is difficult to do the proper amount of DD as it relates to sports wagering, work a full-time job, and concurrently maintain a blog. With that being said, after an almost 3 month hiatus, here are my Week 12 NFL picks:
- New England Patriots -24 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Boy, I hate giving up 3 TD’s and a FG, but I can basically buy a new car on the money I’ve made backing the Patriots this year. I don’t see how Philly will score more than a few points in this one.
- Denver Broncos +1 on the road against the Bears. Amazingly, Denver is tied for first in the AFC West. It looks like their run defense has solidified over the last 2 weeks. Throw into the mix that the Bears running back, Cedric Benson, has been a monumental disaster for the 4-6 Bears.
- Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 at home against the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers have dropped 4 in a row and are now 0-4 at home this year. Somehow, they are a respectable 4-2 on the road. I just can’t see the Panthers dropping to 0-5 at home, even with a fossil (Testaverde) or a sack-waiting-to happen (Carr) at quarterback, though I wouldn’t bet much on this game.
Written by Jon on November 25th, 2007 with no comments.
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The 0-1 Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 6 1/2 points at home against the 1-0 Washington Redskins. The Eagles, coming off a subpar performance against the Packers last weekend, look to rebound against a team they have dominated in recent years. The Eagles have won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams, including a 27-3 blowout win last season in Philadelphia. Since that loss, Jason Campbell has taken over the starting QB position for the Redskins and has posted a record of 3-5, including an overtime win against the Dolphins last week. The Eagles are generally overrated as is their quarterback, but I believe they have enough firepower and defense to cover the spread at home against a below-average opponent. The Redskins were 1-5 against the NFC East last season. I don’t see much improvement this season. Take the Eagles -6 1/2.
Written by Jon on September 17th, 2007 with no comments.
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This is the game everyone has been waiting for! Fresh off their videotape spying incident, the New England Patriots look to improve to 2-0 as they face the 1-0 San Diego Chargers at home. The Patriots are 3 point favorites in a re-match of last season’s playoff matchup. In that playoff game, NE came from behind and won in improbable fashion as San Diego absolutely choked the game away. In the offseason, New England added key offensive players and look to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. San Diego, meanwhile, still a Super Bowl contender, has remained relatively unchanged from last season. They are coming off a win at home against Chicago, but were not overly impressive. If the game were in San Diego, I’d give the Chargers the nod, but this game is in New England. The Patriots have too much firepower. Until San Diego proves they can win a big game, I’ll have to fade them in these situations. New England -3.
Written by Jon on September 16th, 2007 with no comments.
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The New Orleans Saints were shelled by the Indianapolis Colts 41-10 in their opening game. Despite the result of that game, there were two positives to take away from that game: (1) they already played the best team in the NFL - it only gets easier from here and (2) they received two extra days of rest thanks to playing on Thursday. The Saints travel to Tampa Bay this afternoon, where they are 4 point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If the game last week against Indy had been closer, this line would certainly be much greater than a measly 4 points. I still believe New Orleans is a playoff team and the line “appears” very low here. Tampa Bay hasn’t proven anything yet and showed nothing in last week’s 14 point loss to Seattle. Look for a Saints bounce-back this week and take New Orleans -4.
Written by Jon on September 16th, 2007 with no comments.
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It’s a big secret. Will Eli Manning start for the NY Giants today or will he be deactivated? Initial reports indicated Manning will be out a month due to a shoulder injury suffered in last week’s game against the Cowboys. Just as soon as those reports hit the newswires, the Giants denied the reports and claimed Manning was merely day-to-day. The 0-1 Giants are favored by 2 1/2 points at home against the 1-0 Green Bay Packers. The total is set at 38 points. If Eli Manning does not play this game for NY, there is virtually no chance of Big Blue winning this game. The Giants backup, Jared Lorenzen, aptly nicknamed the “Hefty Lefty,” has attempted less than 5 passes in his NFL career. He is quite large and immobile - probably a sack waiting to happen. The Giants will also play without starting running back Brandon Jacobs. Instead, Jets reject, Derrick Ward will get the start this afternoon. The Giants defense was atrocious against Dallas last week. The secondary was burned on every big play and the linebackers non-existent. Tony Romo passed for more yards per completion against the Giants tissue-paper defense than any other quarterback in over 30 years. The 38 points is a gift. Due to the uncertain nature of Eli’s status and the inherent risk of a 2 1/2 point line, I would tease this game to Green Bay +8 1/2 and over 32, with the juice at the standard -110. Good luck!
Written by Jon on September 16th, 2007 with 3 comments.
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My, how perceptions change week to week. The betting lines appear completely different in Week 2 as compared to the Week 1 lines. Before the NFL kicked off play last week, the majority of teams were unproven. You had a hunch, but you didn’t really know who was going to shine and who was going to stink up the joint. The narrowness in spreads reflected this uncertainty. Now, with one week of NFL action already in the books, linesmakers have a better sense of who is good and who is not (yes, Oakland still sucks). Spreads have jumped more than 50% this week, with the average spread in Week 2 standing tall at 6.28 points. In fact, five games feature spreads of 10 points or more. These large favorites include Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago - all home teams. The big question becomes: Can the favorites cover these large spreads? Looking back to Week 1, we find that:
- The favorites were 9-5-2 ATS and 13-3 straight up.
- Home favorites were 7-3-2 ATS and 9-3 straight up.
- Road favorites were 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up.
The dominance of the favorites in Week 1 is apparent. Backing the dog resulted in financial loss, unless you were able to identify the strong dogs and bet accordingly. Another interesting tidbit from Week 1 was the dominance of the Under bet. Playing the under won an astounding 11 of the 16 games. The average total line for Week 1 coming into play, across all 16 games, stood at 40.65 points. That number has dropped significantly to 37.59 points this weekend. So, in effect, the linesmakers are telling us that the games, on average, will be lower-scoring affairs, with the victors winning by more significant margins. As always, we will have to see how it plays out!
For updated NFL lines, check out:
Written by Jon on September 15th, 2007 with 1 comment.
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NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has fined Patriots head coach Bill Belichick $500,000 for his role in stealing defensive signals from the NY Jets in last Sunday’s 38-14 road victory. In addition, the New England Patriots will be slapped with a $250,000 fine and will be forced to give up a draft pick in next year’s draft. It has been rumored for some time that New England has been playing unfairly. In November of last season, New England was accused of spying on the Packers in a game that resulted in a 35-0 win for the Patriots. In that game, Green Bay officials removed the same man, Patriots video assistant Matt Estrella, after they witnessed him filming the Packers defensive personnel from the sidelines.
You have to wonder how many other Patriots games employed the use of videotape-spying and what effect, if any, these tactics had on the results of the games. In my opinion, Goodell came down rightfully hard on Belichick and hit him square where it hurts - in the wallet. Poor Matt Estrella. He will probably be available to photograph your wedding or Bar Mitzvah sometime in the near future.
Written by Jon on September 13th, 2007 with no comments.
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In the early game, the Cincinnati Bengals are giving up 3 points at home to the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams split the season series last year, with the home team winning each game. I have to go with the home team again this year. In the late game, the San Francisco 49ers are 3 1/2 point favorites over the visiting Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals actually swept the 2 games last season against the 49ers. I will buck that trend and bet on the 49ers. Frank Gore is going to have a huge season and I think San Francisco may surprise some folks. Cincinnati -3 and San Francisco - 3 1/2.
Written by Jon on September 10th, 2007 with no comments.
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A full day of NFL action is upon us, so let’s get right into it with my top 2 picks for the early games today:
- St. Louis Rams -1 (-110) over the Carolina Panthers. Carolina, for the first time in years, isn’t expected to go to the Super Bowl. That is good, because I’m not even certain they are a .500 team. Although the Panthers beat St. Louis 15-0 at home last season, I don’t see St. Louis losing this opening game at home. The Rams, behind Bulger and Jackson, have the best offense in the NFC. Stephen Jackson is a load to bring down and Bulger has multiple weapons in the receiving corps. The Rams defense is not very good, but it doesn’t take much defense to stop the impotent Carolina offense.
- Miami Dolphins +3 (-110) over the Washington Redskins. I’m picking the road dog here as I am really unimpressed with the Washington Redskins. Their players don’t instill fear in their opponents on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I like Miami’s defense and think the offense will be vastly improved under Trent Green and the new management. There is big pressure on Miami to sniff the playoffs this season. I’m looking for the Dolphins to get off to a fast start in 2007.
Written by Jon on September 9th, 2007 with no comments.
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Week 1 in the NFL began with a bang as the Indianapolis Colts annihilated the New Orleans Saints by 31 points, easily covering the 6 point spread. Hope you were on the Colts or at least teased the bet like me. After scanning the lines for Week 1, it is interesting to note that all 16 games have spreads set to within 1 touchdown. In fact, linesmakers have set 9 of the 16 games to within a field goal! The teams can’t be this similarly matched, can they? Of course not! The linesmakers, just like you and me, don’t really know what to expect out of the 32 teams at this point in the season. With great research and savvy money management, a skilled handicapper can destroy the lines in Week 1 and make some serious cash. My hypothesis, formulated while watching Peyton Manning torch the Saints secondary last night, is just that: the linesmakers are no more knowledgeable than the average bettor at this point in the season. To collect evidence supporting my theory, I went back and glanced at the Week 1 lines of the 2006 NFL season. What I found was a gross disconnect between the spreads set by linesmakers and the actual results of the football games:
- The average spread in Week 1 of the 2006 NFL season was only 4.125 points. This included 2 games that were set at 9.5 points each. Eliminate those two games from the mix and the average spread was barely a field goal.
- The average margin of victory in 2006 Week 1 was a whopping 11.19 points, including 7 games (44%) determined by more than 10 points.
- The favorites were only 8-8 straight up and a horrible 5-11 against the spread.
So let’s turn to Week 1 NFL betting for 2007. The average spread for the 16 games this week is a mere 4 points, a bit lower than even last year. And true to form, the Colts covered a 6 point spread with about 3+ touchdowns to spare. The games will not be as close as the lines indicate. Remember that as you place your wagers. We will see if the dogs dominate like they did last year. Good luck!
Written by Jon on September 7th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will kick off the 2007-2008 NFL season tomorrow night in Indianapolis. But even more importantly, the game will signify the official start of the NFL betting season. The majority of decent sportsbooks currently have the Super Bowl champs as 6 point favorites against the Saints, with the total set at 52 1/2 points. Indy is running at -260 on the moneyline, while New Orleans is paying out +220 straight up. Indianapolis was a perfect 8-0 last season at home and have gone 15-1 over the last 2 seasons at home. New Orleans was a very respectable 6-2 on the road last season. I obviously like the Colts in this game as they have excelled at home in recent years, but the 6 point spread is a bit high. The Colts won 3 of their 8 home games (37.5%) last season by less than 6 points - to lower quality teams (Miami, Buffalo, Tennessee) than the Saints. I could see this game being close and perhaps lower scoring than one would think. Although not a big proponent of the teaser bet, I am going to be teasing this bet to Indy at PK and under 58 1/2, with the standard juice of -110. I’m keeping this bet small as you never know what to expect during week 1. Good luck!
Written by Jon on September 4th, 2007 with no comments.
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With the NFL set to kick off this week, it is worthwhile to take a quick gander at which teams the linesmakers respect and which teams they disrespect. Clearly the lines are heavily influenced by last years results. But as we have seen in recent years, teams can make dramatic jumps from crap to quality in a single season - and vice versa. Perhaps you know something these linesmakers don’t know. The four favorites to win Superbowl XLII this year are:
- New England Patriots +300
- San Diego Chargers +500
- Indianapolis Colts +635
- New Orleans Saints +900
The 4 lowly teams who are expected to watch the Super Bowl from home this season are:
- Oakland Raiders +14000
- Buffalo Bills +8900
- Houston Texans +8200
- Cleveland Browns +8100
The Chicago Bears are the favorites to win the NFC at +455, while the New England Patriots are +230 favorites to win the AFC.
For updated futures odds, along with regular-season-wins betting odds, check out:
Written by Jon on September 1st, 2007 with no comments.
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I know I claimed a few weeks ago that preseason betting is silly and efforts to successfully handicap the games were an excercise in futility. Having said that, I am bored tonight and need some action. As the Indianapolis Colts host the Chicago Bears in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, I have opted for a 6-point teaser. I’m locked and loaded with the Colts +9 and Over 31 1/2. The cost is -110.
Written by Jon on August 20th, 2007 with no comments.
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The New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers kick off the NFL preseason festivities in the Hall of Fame Game tonight in Canton, OH. Quite frankly, who gives a crap? This game may only be of importance to bettors, because it sure as hell doesn’t mean a damn thing to the teams involved. True, certain guys may be playing for a roster spot, but these guys generally suck, which is why they have to prove themselves during these meaningless games. The preseason means absolutely NOTHING! There is no correlation whatsoever between past record and future record, based on a team’s final preseason record in a given year. How would I play the preseason? I wouldn’t. But if I had to, I would just take the moneyline underdog in every preseason game, skip the needless handicapping, and see what results. The line in this game is 3 points with Pittsburgh being the favorite. What is this line based on? Absolutely nothing.
Written by Jon on August 5th, 2007 with no comments.
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Sports Gambling Blog concluded the NFL betting season with a large Super Bowl victory. The Indianapolis Colts won by 12 points and easily covered the 6.5-7 point spread. The game wasn’t even that close and at no time in the fourth quarter did I feel Chicago was going to damage the spread. Boy is Rex grossman terrible! The 5 unit Super Bowl victory gives us a 29.8 unit net gain for the entire 2006-2007 season. We also attained a 25-15-1 record. That equates to 63%. Just a great all around season. Now the blog will concentrate solely on the NBA until baseball season starts up again. Good luck to all bettors out there!
Written by Jon on February 5th, 2007 with no comments.
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We are finally here - the last game of the season. The Super Bowl. If you have not placed your bets yet, you have a little less than 10 hours to do so. I find it very interesting that the Chicago Bears backers now outnumber the Indianapolis Colts backers according to the Wagerline.com Consensus Report. The media, various gurus and pundits, NFL executives, and CBS personnel have done a great job of convincing the public that the Bears can win this game. Or at least remain close. I don’t see it. Personally, I feel the Bears defense is good, but it isn’t great. They are susceptible to the run straight up the gut. Shaun Alexander torched the Bears in the second half three weeks ago. The secondary of the Bears is very average. Very average won’t be good enough with the Indy receivers (Harrison, Wayne, and TE Clark) and Peyton Manning at the helm. If Indy puts a few TD’s on the board very quickly (as I expect), I think this game can get out of control in a heartbeat. Peyton Manning is an absolute master at reading defensive schemes and will not be flustered by anything Chicago throws at him. Rex Grossman, on the other hand, is a turnover machine if you presure him. He does not have the ability to bring the Bears back from a huge deficit if the game follows that path. Just too many reasons for the Colts to win and win big. Too many improbable IF’s have to come true in order for the Bears to win this game. Biggest NFL bet of the year. Give me the Colts at -6 1/2. Good luck!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
5 units on Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 (against Chicago Bears in the SUPER BOWL)
Written by Jon on February 4th, 2007 with no comments.
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This is the game of the year! It pins Tom Brady and the New England Patriots against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. The payoff, a SuperBowl appearance. It really doesn’t get much better than this. Quite simply, I believe the Patriots will win this game. I am still not sold on the Indianapolis run-defense. Kansas City and Baltimore had terrible game plans against the Colts, looking to exploit holes in what they perceived as a vulnerable Indy defense. Unfortunately, these two teams were unimaginative and sloppy in their play calling and execution. Today, the Colts face a true test with Bill Belichick. He, along with Tom Brady, will successfully exploit a bad Indy defense. I feel the Patriots will be able to run with ease on Indy as the tackling doldrums suddenly re-appear. Brady’s passing may be just what is needed to open up the running lanes as he passes to everyone and anyone who is eligible to receive a pass. I look for the Patriots to spread the offense and put up quite a few yards and points on Indy. Peyton Manning has been very shaky in the playoffs this season (and historically). Conversely, Tom Brady is now 12-1 in the postseason in his career. When the game is on the line, Brady delivers almost 100% of the time. I would consider placing a straight-up bet on the Patriots with the Moneyline paying anywhere from +145 to +160, but have opted for the safer bet with the Patriots getting 3 points. Good luck!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on NE Patriots +3 (at Indianapolis)
Written by Jon on January 21st, 2007 with no comments.
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The New Orleans Saints march into Chicago with grand dreams of a Super Bowl appearance this season. I don’t think it is going to happen. Despite the fact that everyone and their mother likes the Saints in this matchup, I am going with the Bears. In fact, according to some wagering sites, 70% of bettors are laying cash on the Saints. Sure the Bears defense isn’t as good as it was in the first half of the season. But the Saints defense is downright awful. The Eagles’ Brian Westbrook ran for 9 yards/carry last week en route to 116 yards and 2 TD’s against the Saints. If Andy Reid coached a halfway decent game, Philly would be in this game. How can he only run Westbrook 13 times. Stupid! On top of that, mediocre-at-best wideout Dante Stallworth caught a 75 yard TD pass last week against a pretty bad Saints secondary. The Saints secondary is extremely vulnerable to the deep pass. Rex Grossman, say what you will about him, is more than capable of going long with very good accuracy against the Saints. Grossman is susceptible to the pass rush, but if he has time in the pocket, he will kill you. I expect the running game of the Bears to create fine opportunities for Grossman. Game time temperature will be around 30 degrees with an inch or two of snow expected. I like the Bears to win this one and cover.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Chicago Bears -2 (home vs New Orleans)
Written by Jon on January 21st, 2007 with no comments.
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It is finally here, the last real weekend of the NFL season. Four teams battling for the right to go to the Super Bowl in two weeks. To me, the Super Bowl is nothing more than two weeks of hype, flashy commercials, 2 hour half-time shows, with just a sprinkling of actual football. Will I watch it? Of course. This weekend, the Conference Championships, however, is built for the real hardcore NFL fan. You will see four quality teams fighting for a spot in NFL history. Will the Patriots extend to 6-0 in AFC Championship games? Will Peyton Manning finally make it to the Super Bowl? Will the Saints miraculously recover from a devastating hurricane and march into their first Super Bowl? Or will the Bears finally silence their critics? So many great storylines.
This is also a great weekend for NFL bettors and one of the final opportunities to make some coin in the 2006-2007 season. As a general overview, most sportsbooks have the Bears as 2-3 point favorites at home against the Saints. The variability in the spread is based on the amount of juice they are charging. In the second game, the Colts are favored by 3 points over the Patriots in just about every sportsbook. Some books have really jacked up the juice on the Colts side. With both lines being set by a field goal or under and with varying degrees of juice, it is certainly worth shopping for the best lines this weekend. I am listing below all of the sportsbooks that I have joined within the past 6 months. They are the best of the best. My picks will be posted in about 12 hours. Good luck!
Written by Jon on January 20th, 2007 with no comments.
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Looks like the majority of sportsbooks have opened the betting lines with Chicago as a 3 point favorite. Currently, you can make an even money bet (no juice) on the Chicago Bears via BetUS and Belmont. BetCris has Chicago as a 2.5 point favorite at -110.
Written by Jon on January 14th, 2007 with no comments.
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Tom Brady is 11-1 in his career in the playoffs. Phillip Rivers has never taken a snap in the playoffs. That is all I need to know. I expect a close game and will take New England as the visiting underdog.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units New England Patriots +5 (at San Diego)
Written by Jon on January 14th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Chicago Bears are currently favored by 9 points over the visiting Seattle Seahwaks. The Bears have a great defense, ranked number 1 in the NFC, by a mile. They only give up 15.9 points/game. The forecast for Chicago is rain and snow all day. Under these conditions, I don’t see Seattle cracking the 10 point barrier - at least on offense. Despite all the naysayers who say that Chicago QB Rex Grossman is terrible, the Bears actually have the best offense in the NFC (at least on a points/game basis). The Bears score 26.7 points per game, the same as the Indianapolis Colts. Only the San Diego Chargers score more points at 30.8 per game. Rex Grossman gets rid of the ball and rarely takes a sack. He is, however, susceptible to the fumble (he’s been sacked 21 times and fumbled 7 times in 16 games). Seattle, on the other hand, could be without two of their top wide receivers. Both Darrell Jackson and DJ Hackett are hurt and will likely see limited play, if any. Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck have been banged up all season. Quite frankly, the Seahawks are lucky to even be playing in this game. In my opinion, the keys to this game will be field position and rushing. Seattle simply cannot afford to kick the ball to Chicago superstar kick returner Devin Hester. Whether they do or don’t, I expect Chicago to have great field position all day. Watch out for Chicago’s second running back, Cedric Benson. He has been saved all season for the playoffs. With great field position, a sloppy field, swarming defense, and a solid running game, the recipe is in place for a Chicago blowout. Incidentally, 9 of Chicago’s 13 wins have been by more than 9 points. That is nearly 70%. Chicago beat Seattle earlier in the season 37-6 in Chicago. Give me Chicago in January!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Chicago Bears -9 (home vs Seattle)
Written by Jon on January 14th, 2007 with no comments.
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I’m kicking myself for laying good money on the Ravens. My first instincts were to go with the Colts, but after much data-crunching and analysis, the Ravens seemed like the proper play at home. In fact, the Ravens did perform as well as I thought they would on defense, holding the high-flying Colts to a measly 15 points on 5 field goals. Unfortunately, their offense flat-out choked, turning the ball over 4 times. Quite simply, the offense didn’t come to play and were dominated by a very average defense. McNair turned the ball over to the Colts more than he converted on third downs for the Ravens. You can’t win like that and hence Baltimore is gone. Good riddance! Fortunately, the Eagles covered in the second game. Thanks Reggie!
Written by Jon on January 14th, 2007 with no comments.
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Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Philadelphia Eagles +6 (at New Orleans)
Written by Jon on January 13th, 2007 with no comments.
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I admit it. I would like to see Peyton Manning win a Super Bowl, but I would also like to see my betting account(s) grow. Therefore, I will not be backing the Colts today. There is just too much evidence and cold, hard data that points to a Baltimore victory. Right off the bat, the Colts have lost their last 4 road games and really haven’t looked impressive in the second half of the season at all. Baltimore is 7-1 at home this season and comes into this game well-rested and clicking on all cylinders. The Ravens defense is just plain suffocating. They rank number 2 in the NFL in sacks with 60, number 1 in interceptions (28), and number 1 in INT TD’s (5). Manning has been very susceptible to the turnover in the postseason (three against KC last week) throughout his career. Baltimore may not be able to batter and bruise him, but they will certainly rush and hurry him into dangerous passes. The Ravens defense ranks #1 in fewest total yards allowed/game, #1 in fewest points/game allowed, #2 in fewest rush yards allowed/game, and #6 in fewest pass yards allowed/game. We know what we will get out of the Ravens defense. It is the offense, in my opinion, that holds the key to victory for the Baltimore. The Ravens lead the NFL in time of possession, clocking in at almost 33 minutes per game. Keep Manning off the field and Indy can’t score. I look for a big game out of Jamal Lewis and wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off for 150 yards today against the still-questionnable Indy run defense. Steve McNair is perfectly constructed for the Baltimore offense and is still mobile at his advanced age. Indy can’t stop those mobile quarterbacks and Indy won’t be able to stop their playoff shortcomings today. Look for Baltimore to cover.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 (home vs Indianapolis)
Written by Jon on January 13th, 2007 with no comments.
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What an intriguing matchup today in New Enagland! It is pupil vs teacher as Eric Mangini’s Jets battle Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots. The Patriots rank higher than the Jets in nearly every major offensive and defensive category. Simply put, the Patriots have the better players. I will still put my money on the Jets as linesmakers have determined the Jets to be a whopping 9.5 point underdog. These teams have split the season series, with the Jets winning the latest matchup at New England 17-14. In that game, the Jets battered around Tom Brady and sacked him 4 times. In fact, the Jets have outscored the Patriots 34-21 in the last 6 quarters of play. The Jets are 6-2 on the road this season, while New England is 5-3 at home. The Patriots have had only two blowout victories (by more than 10 points) at home all season - against Houston and Miami. The Jets have been blown out only once on the road the entire year. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, with an emphasis on field position and defense. If the Jets can get to Brady, they actually have a chance to win. I would not be shocked if the Jets win, although New England hasn’t lost a home playoff game since 1978. I would be shocked if the Jets get blown out. In the last matchup between these two teams, New England was a 10.5 point favorite and wound up losing the game. My money is on the Jets to keep this game competitive.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
1 unit on NY Jets +9 1/2 (at New England)
Written by Jon on January 7th, 2007 with no comments.
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This is a very interesting game as both teams limp into the playoffs. The Cowboys can’t stop the pass. The Seahawks can’t put together a complete 60-minute game. The Cowboys inability to stop the pass is well documented and I would expect Seattle to constantly test the Dallas secondary with 4 wideout sets and formations. Unfortunately for Seattle, WR’s DJ Hackett and Darrell Jackson are hurt. Their status is currently listed as questionable. The two have combined for 14TD’s and 1600 receiving yards this season. It would be a major blow for Seattle if these guys sit out tonight. Dallas, despite its recent defensive struggles, is still a solid offensive team. They feature a nice balance of run (Barber and Jones) and pass (Romo, Owens, Glenn, Witten) and I would expect that to continue against a very inconsistent Seattle defense. Seattle, on both sides of the ball, is just flat out inconsistent and I can’t bet on them. Seattle wins some games on offense, while the defense wins others for them. In the big game, both squads have never shown up together. The best thing that could have happened to Dallas was losing to Detroit last week. That should be the wakeup call that Dallas needed. Take Dallas!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Dallas Cowboys +3 (at Seattle)
Written by Jon on January 6th, 2007 with no comments.
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It’s amazing to think that the KC Chiefs are actually in the playoffs. Sure they have running back superstar Larry Johnson with his record NFL rushing attempts this year. And sure, Indy can’t stop the run and will not be able to stop Johnson. But it won’t matter. I expect Indy to win by 2 TD’s or more this afternoon. The Chiefs are a pitiful 3-5 on the road, with two of those victories against Oakland and Arizona. We all know about Indy’s high-powered offense. There is nothing in the KC defense that leads me to believe that they can stop Manning, Harrison, Wayne, and crew. The Chiefs gave up 30 points to the Jaguars one week ago - at home. They also gave up 31 points to the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland. Those two teams weren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. I expect Indy to score at will and make it out of the first round easily. Linesmakers have over-estimated Johnson’s impact on this game, in my opinion.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Indianapolis Colts -7 (home vs KC)
Written by Jon on January 6th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Baltimore Ravens are favored by 9 at home over the Buffalo Bills. With a win today, Baltimore will clinch the second seed and a first round bye in the playoffs. If San Diego loses to Arizona (unlikely), they can even gain the top spot in the AFC. Buffalo has been playing much better lately, having won 5 of their last 8, with those 3 losses by a combined 5 points. Having said that, I think the Bills comes back to earth today. Baltimore has all the motivation in the world, while Buffalo has nothing to play for. The Ravens play in an incredibly hostile environment and I see a potential blowout victory for Baltimore. Baltimore has won their last 3 home games by an average of 17 points. Overall, the Ravens are 6-1 at home, with an avrage victory margin of nearly 14 points. Baltimore comes off a stretch of 8 victories in their last 9 games and have shown to be a Super Bowl-caliber team. The only reason the line is so low is due to Buffalo’s improved play of late. Take advantage of this and bet on Baltimore.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Baltimore Ravens -9 (home vs Buffalo)
Written by Jon on December 31st, 2006 with no comments.
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Sports Gambling Blog Picks:
2 units on Houston Texans -5 1/2 (home vs Cleveland)
1 unit on Tennessee Titans -3 (home vs New England)
Written by Jon on December 31st, 2006 with no comments.
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It’s do or die for the NY Giants and their playoff chances. I like the Giants at -1.5.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
1 unit on NY Giants -1 1/2 (at Washington)
Written by Jon on December 30th, 2006 with no comments.
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This weekend, Sports Gambling Blog went 5-2 with a net gain of 5 units in NFL betting. As always, another interesting week comes to a close. The Patriots won a big game on the road and clinched the AFC East. Jacksonville now needs major help. The Bengals suffered a treacherous loss that will haunt their fans for years. Eagles fans, on the other hand, have much to celebrate as Philly takes down the over-rated and over-hyped Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens turn Roethlisberger into a human pinata..again. Many teams eliminated, many teams still have a shot at the playoffs. We will find out who is in and who is out next week as the regular season winds down.
Program Note: I am off to Foxwoods Casino for the next two days and will return by Wednesday night/Thursday morning with more predictions. Good luck to everyone in the meantime!
Written by Jon on December 26th, 2006 with no comments.
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Merry Christmas to everyone! Hopefully you received that elusive gift that you had been eyeing all year. The NFL, unlike much of this year, has actually treated us to two very good matchups in prime time, both with playoff implications.
In the first game, I love the Philadelphia Eagles on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are getting 8 points. The linesmakers still have no respect for the Eagles and too much for the Cowboys. After giving up 4 passing TD’s to Michael Vick, I don’t know if the Cowboys can stop anyone at the QB position. I could throw a 50 yard bomb against that pitiful Cowboy secondary. I expect Jeff Garcia to have a monster game, while Brian Westbrook, perhaps the most under-rated RB in the league, will turn out another 100 yard rushing performance. Tony Romo has gone from bench player to Superman, back to Wonder Woman. Thankfully, the hype surrounding him is starting to fade. The Eagles will come up with a defensive scheme to contain him. I like the Eagles to win this game straight up, so will gladly take the 8 points.
In game two, I will have to take the NY Jets at +2 1/2. Quite simply, they need this game and Miami has absolutely nothing to play for. The Jets historically play the Dolphins well. Miami QB Joey Harrington is coming off a horrible game. He had a passer rating of ZERO in his last game in Buffalo - in fact, it was probably one of the worst passing games in NFL history. He looked terrible. Harrington is a streaky QB and I expect his poor play to continue tonight. The Jets are 5-2 on the road this year and MUST have this game if they want to secure a playoff spot.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Philadelphia Eagles +8 (at Dallas)
2 units on NY Jets +2 1/2 (at Miami)
Written by Jon on December 25th, 2006 with no comments.
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Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
1 unit on Cleveland Browns -3 (home vs Tampa Bay)
1 unit on St. Louis Rams -1 (home vs Washington)
Written by Jon on December 24th, 2006 with no comments.
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I’m not sure I fully agree with the 10-4 New England Patriots being the underdogs against the 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars. It is probably due to the fact that Jacskonville is the home team. Keep in mind that New England is 5-1 on the road this year. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is a solid 6-1 at home. Jacksoville QB David Garrard is coming off a 4 turnover, 4 sack performance against the Tennessee Titans. The Jags starting RB Fred Taylor is out, which leaves 5′7″ running back Maurice Jones-Drew with the bulk of the running duty. This game will ultimately depend on Garrard’s QB play. If he turns the ball over, this game will be over in a flash. The Patriots are a well-coached, tough, and hungry team. I have confidence that they have studied the Jaguars on film and will be able to stop the run and place intense pressure on Garrard. With the run stopped, the shaky passing game of Jacksonville will suffer. Patriots getting 3 is a good incentive to bet on them. Good luck!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on New England Patriots +3 (at Jacksonville)
Written by Jon on December 24th, 2006 with no comments.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3 points today against the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers have won 5 of 6, including 3 in a row. Their last loss, a 27-0 blowout, was just under a month ago in Baltimore. In that game, Roethlisberger was sacked 9 times , threw 2 picks, and fumbled once. Outside of that game, the Steelers have been playing much better as of late, albeit against weak opponents (Tampa, Cleveland twice, Carolina). Unfortunately for them, it may be too little, too late. Baltimore, on the other hand, has won 7 of 8 and has had a dominant all around season at 11-3. Ravens QB Steve McNair is banged up and I’m not sure he will make it through this game, especially if the Steelers put pressure on him. Having already clinched the division, there is no reason for Baltimore to risk a McNair injury. I have no confidence in the backup Kyle Boller against the Pittsburgh D. On paper, Baltimore is a better team, but betting is not that simple. There is too much motivation for an improved Pittsburgh team to win this game. I like Pittsburgh at home!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (home vs Baltimore)
Written by Jon on December 24th, 2006 with no comments.
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What a horrible game the NFL Network will be airing tonight! The only ones interested in this game will be the bettors. On tap is the 7-7 Kansas City Chiefs headed to Oakland to do battle with the 2-12 Raiders. The Chiefs are favored by 7 in this game and I have to think they will prevail by much more than that. The Raiders don’t score, they don’t defend, and they don’t care. They are a pitiful excuse for a football team. On top of that, their one weapon, Randy Moss is questionable. The Chiefs have underachieved this season as well, but I can’t see them having any problems scoring or defending against the lowly Raiders.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
1 unit on Kansas City Chiefs -7 (at Oakland)
Written by Jon on December 23rd, 2006 with no comments.
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Week 15 comes to a close. An interesting week to say the least. Indy dominated at home and totally grounded the high-flying Bengals. New Orleans came back to earth and was dominated in every facet of the game by the last place Redskins. Who would have figured? The Giants looked terrible against the Eagles at home. Look out for Jeff Garcia and the Eagles. McNabb who? The Patriots put a serious hurt on the Texans. Tennesee and Buffalo, serious contenders in the making. Baltimore clinches. Jets playoff bound?
We went 3-3 for the week, with a net gain of 1.1 units. Not a very satisying week, but at least money was made. Hopefully week 16 will be more successful.
Written by Jon on December 18th, 2006 with no comments.
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I am taking the Kansas City Chiefs on the road against the San Diego Chargers. KC is getting 9 points on a day when the big favorites, for the most part, are not covering. The Chiefs still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but will need a victory tonight. In addition, KC might be playing with a bit extra passion as their owner Lamar Hunt passed away this past Wednesday. The Chiefs already beat San Diego earlier in the season at home. Larry Johnson ran for nearly 140 yards and 2 TD’s in that game. I like the 9 points here.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
1.5 units on KC Chiefs +9 (at San Diego)
Written by Jon on December 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Sports Gambling Blog Picks:
1 unit on New York Giants -5 1/2 (home vs Philadelphia)
1 unit on Indianapolis Colts -3 (home vs Cincinnati)
Written by Jon on December 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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I expect the NO Saints to demolish the Washington Redskins at home today. With a win at home, the Saints will clinch a playoff spot. The Redskins are 1-5 on the road, having lost the last 4 away from Washington. This will be the first road game for Washington in 4 weeks. New Washington QB Jason Campbell has thrown 4 interceptions in the past 2 games to accompany a 50% completion rate and a 55 QB rating. New Orleans is clicking on all cyclinders right now. On paper, this has all the makings of a New Orleans blowout. Take the Saints.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 (home vs Washington)
Written by Jon on December 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Maybe I’m missing something here, but the Raiders are 2-11 this season and rival the Detroit Lions for the worst team in the NFL. I just have to scratch my head and wonder how they can be favored by 3 points over the St. Louis Rams. I can’t see them being favored over anyone, except for the aforementioned Lions. The Oakland Raiders can’t score (lowest total points in the AFC at 156) and they can’t defend - and hence, they don’t win. St. Louis has greatly underachieved this season, but they can score with the best of them. The Rams put up 27 points against Chicago on Monday against the league’s best defensive team. If not for special teams blunders, the Rams may have really challenged Chicago in that game. I don’t see anything that warrants Oakland being the favorite in this matchup and will thus bet straight up, moneyline style, on the Rams. Look for big numbers from Bulger this week.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on St. Louis Rams MONEYLINE +130 (at Oakland)
Written by Jon on December 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Just scanning over the lines right now, I see a fine play involving the Denver Broncos. They play the Cardinals in Arizona this week and are 3 point favorites. The Bronocs have lost 4 in a row as the team has transitioned from Jake Plummer to Jay Cutler as their starting QB. The Cardinals are now 4-9 after having won their last two games against the Rams and Seahawks. The Denver defense has been, for the most part, abysmal ever since the Indy loss 7 weeks ago. Once the strong suit for Denver, the defense needs to take the blame for their mid-season collapse and not the change in quarterbacking duties. I look for the Cutler to continue improving this week and believe they will put up some points against a lackluster Arizona D. The Denver defense has much to prove and I see them finally stepping up. Denver has been a good road team all year with a 4-3 record. I see Denver winning this one big.
Note: BetCris currently has Denver as -3 EVEN in this game. Pure 1:1 payout with no juice. Bet em big!
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Denver Broncos -3 (at Arizona)
Written by Jon on December 16th, 2006 with no comments.
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After the embarrassment the Cowboys had to endure against the New Orleans Saints last Sunday night, Dallas has the opportunity to avenge that brutal loss in another nationally televised game tonight. They travel to Atlanta to do battle with the Vick-led Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons have won 2 in a row on the road against the Bucs and Redskins. They have looked OK at times this season and dreadful at other times. They have never, however, looked like a playoff team. I expect Dallas to win this contest in easy fashion. They will likely contain Vick in the pocket, much like New Oreleans did to Tony Romo. Dallas, susceptible to giving up the long play, will probably not need to worry about that against Vick and the Falcons. You have to respect the running game of the Falcons which is ranked number 1 in the league. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense, that I know Atlants can’t sop. I expect the Cowboys to come out fired up after last week’s loss and would expect them to take care of business on the road tonight.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 (at Atlanta)
Written by Jon on December 16th, 2006 with no comments.
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The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 9 1/2 over the San Francisco 49ers. Seattle has been a very tough place for opponents to play the last few years. The Seahawks are 5-1 at home this year. The 49ers have struggled the past three weeks with 3 consecutive bad losses. Before these losses, some 49er fans were sniffing the playoffs. That smell has since turned foul and will get even worse tonight, in my opinion. The Seahawks actually lost to these same 49ers in San Francisco a few weeks ago, and I think you will see extra motivation from the Seattle players tonight. The 9 1/2 spread should be easy enough for Seattle to cover.
Sports Gambling Blog Pick:
2 units on Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 (home vs SF)
Written by Jon on December 14th, 2006 with no comments.
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