The Brewers are only 1 game behind (0 in the loss column) the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Milwaukee opens up a huge series in Atlanta against the Braves tonight. Big game pitcher Jeff Suppan (10-11 record, 4.72ERA) will get the start for the Brewers. Atlanta will counter with right-hander Jeff Bennett, who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors since 2004. The Brewers, with 11 games remaining, need to win as many games as possible in order to stay in the playoff picture. This happens to be a very winnable game for the Brewers. My money is on the Brew Crew. At -105, the line is cheap. Hammer it.
Written by Jon on September 20th, 2007 with no comments.
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The New York Mets are doing their best to choke away first place in the NL East, a spot they have occupied for almost 2 years now. The Phillies, once a wildcard long shot, now find themselves only 1.5 games behind the Mets and knocking on the door. New York has lost 5 games in a row (for the third time this season - they haven’t lost six in a row in a few years). Tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals in Washington is THE single biggest game of the regular season for the Mets in years. The youngster Mike Pelfrey will go against the Nationals Matt Chico. As the Mets bullpen has imploded in recent weeks, we find out that Moises Alou (and his current 22 game hitting streak) may be out for the season due to a re-injury of the quadriceps. Despite the Mets recent problems, they HAVE to win tonight. Plain and simple. Backing the Mets straight up costs -149, but backing them on the runline boosts the payout to +115. I don’t like to bet large amounts on baseball games, but I have a pretty sizable bet on the Mets tonight. Good luck.
Written by Jon on September 19th, 2007 with no comments.
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Forty-five year old fossil Roger Clemens was forced to leave Sunday’s game against the Seattle Mariners after only 4 innings due to elbow tightness. The Yankees dropped a key game at home to Seattle by the score of 7-1 as the Rocket allowed 5 runs and 8 hits before hitting the showers. He is scheduled to have an MRI on Monday. This was a must-win game for the Yankees and the Rocket fizzled in a big spot. Entering play, the Yankees commanded a two game lead over Seattle for the wildcard spot. The Yankees had the chance to step on the necks of a reeling Mariners squad, but came up way short. At this point, it is reasonable to ask whether Clemens’ most recent tenure with the Yankees has been a bust.
Consider that the Rocket’s salary this year is a whopping $28 million - his cut, on a pro-rated basis, is $18.7 million. He has started 16 games thus far and sports a 6-6 record with a 4.45 ERA. The Yankees have won 7 of his 16 starts (44%). Let’s do some math. To date, Clemens’ price tag has been $1.17 million/start and $2.67 million/win. No wonder ticket prices are through the roof! Upon further scrutiny, one notices that in three of Clemens’ wins, the Yankees hammered out 9 runs per game. In effect, the Yankees, with their potent offense, were “destined” to win these games, regardless of who pitched. So basically, whoever would have pitched in place of Clemens for 16 starts, would have been spotted 3 victories. This mystery pitcher would then have to go 4-9 in the remaining starts to match Clemens’ output. Obviously Roger Clemens is headed to the Hall of Fame and is probably one of the top 5 pitchers of all time. But let’s be honest, Clemens has not added much to the win total of the New York Yankees in 2007. It is probably too early to tell whether Clemens has been a total bust. That will largely depend on his playoff performance if the Yankees make the playoffs and if he pitches in it. In the meantime, I’ll just label him as a very expensive antique.
Written by Jon on September 3rd, 2007 with no comments.
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In scouring today’s MLB lines, there was one sure win on the docket. That would be the New York Yankees at home against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. By now, we all know that Andy Pettitte rarely loses in the second half, especially against a team with a minor league pitching staff. Today, TB will trot out Jason Hammel and his fancy 7.44 ERA. There is an excellent chance that NY will win this game. Unfortunately, the moneyline is at -335 and the reward is not worth the risk. I have parlayed the Yankees at -335 with the Los Angeles Angels at -235 to get the payout closer to even money. This two-team parlay actually pays out approximately 17-20. Lay $100 on these large favorites in a parlay bet and get back $85 in profit. The Angels will have Lackey on the mound, at home, going for his 17th win of the season. Having lost to Texas yesterday, I can’t see the Angels losing today, behind their ace, and dropping 2 out of 3 at home to the Rangers. Yankees -335/Angels -235 two-team-parlay is the play. Good luck!
Written by Jon on September 2nd, 2007 with no comments.
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Let’s be realistic, the Baltimore Orioles are not a good team. They are 58-72 and come into tonight’s game against Tampa Bay having lost 7 in a row. In those 7 games, they have been outscored by their opponents 87-28. Of course that alarming margin of defeat includes the 30-3 annihilation at the hands of the Texas Rangers exactly one week ago today. In the six games following that blowout, the Orioles have still managed to lose by an average of 5 runs per game. New Orioles manager Dave Trembley should probably be placed on suicide watch right about now. The Orioles just may have hit rock bottom last night when they allowed 11 runs in the 8th inning to Tampa Bay, blowing a 6-2 lead and proceeding to lose 15-8. It doesn’t get much worse than that. Tonight, it will be Steve Trachsel against James Shields. Somehow, some way, the Orioles will find a way to win this game. The Orioles are +118 underdogs at home. If you take them on the reverse runline as I have, the payout is +195. Orioles +118 is the play. Good luck!
Written by Jon on August 29th, 2007 with no comments.
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The greatest rivalry in all of sports is renewed tonight as the Boston Red Sox head to the Bronx and battle the New York Yankees. It will be Dice-K up against Andy Pettitte. Backing the Yankees on the runline is currently paying out +150 and I’m locked in on that. Pettitte is a huge money pitcher and damn near unhittable between the months of July and October. The Yankees, despite losing to Dice-K earlier in the season, knocked him around for 6 ER’s in 7 innings. While the Yankees have little shot at catching the Red Sox in the AL East (Yanks are 8 games back), they need little motivation to get up for this game tonight. The Yankees are coming off an embarrassing 16-0 loss last night to the Tigers and the Sox may receive some punishment tonight. Yankees (-1 1/2) +150 at home.
Written by Jon on August 28th, 2007 with no comments.
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The cost to back the Mets is only -106 tonight as they open a four game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia. The Mets are 28-14 in first games of series and an MLB best 38-26 on the road this season. The pitching matchup will be Brian Lawrence for the Mets (1-1, 5.57ERA) against J.D. Durbin (5-3, 5.44 ERA). The Mets whacked Durbin earlier in the season, pounding out 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings. The pitchers are similarly skilled, but the Mets are the better team. They are a seasoned road team and I like the cheap cost of backing them. Give me NY -106.
Written by Jon on August 27th, 2007 with no comments.
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Brett Myers is at it again. Blowing saves, opening his big mouth, and being restrained from fighting. The amateur boxer refused to take credit for blowing the save last night against the Padres. He gave up two HR’s in the ninth inning, turning a win into a loss against the San Diego Padres. Myers, after the game, explained that the two homers were really “just popups.” When a reporter challenged Myers remarks, the pitcher called the reporter “retarded.” The reporter, in turn asked Myers if he could spell “retarded.” That prompted Myers to approach the reporter. Pat Burrell had to restrain Myers from turning the reporters face into a punching bag. Moral of the story - Myers has a temper and is a little insecure about his spelling ability. Take the Phillies at -150 today. They usually win the day after after clubhouse drama.
Note: Myers is 6′4″ and 215lbs. As an amateur boxer, he had a record of 12-0. He threw it down with Drew Henson (the ex-QB) in the minors and allegedly punched his wife in the face in 2006.
Written by Jon on August 26th, 2007 with 635 comments.
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I have placed my bets on the two New York baseball teams tonight :
- The Mets are rare home underdogs (+130) as they face the Padres and Jake Peavy. New York has had some success against Peavy this year, defeating him 7-0 in mid-July. Offensively, the Mets have scored 5 or more runs in 9 straight games. Brian Lawrence will be on the mound for the Mets, hurling against his former team. While Lawrence is no Peavy, San Diego is the worst offensive team in baseball, with a putrid team batting average of .245.
- The Yankees (-118) are looking to avoid the sweep to the LA Angels as their three game series comes to a close in California. I like Andy Pettitte over John Lackey in this situation. Pettitte is one of the best second-half pitchers in baseball (6-1 record this year) and the go-to guy when the Yankees need to stop the bleeding. The Yankees were embarrassed yesterday and I think they will exact some revenge tonight.
Written by Jon on August 22nd, 2007 with no comments.
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Matt Cain is the best 13-game loser in the majors this year. It is unfortunate for him that his team absolutely blows from an offensive standpoint. Nonetheless, I will be backing Cain and the Giants at -130 against the Marlins in Florida. Rick VandenHurk gets the nod for the lowly Marlins. He sports a ridiculous 7.46 ERA and has been absolutely shelled in his last 4 outings. The Giants, meanwhile, have scored a pathetic 18 runs in Matt Cain’s last 8 starts. This is why Cain continues to accumulate losses at a rapid pace. If the Giants can just score 3 or 4 runs for Cain, I think he will avoid loss number 14. SF Giants -130 is the play. Good luck!
Written by Jon on August 18th, 2007 with no comments.
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A much-anticipated four game series begins tonight as the Detroit Tigers pay a visit to the Bronx and the NY Yankees. The two teams are battling for playoff spots in the AL and the result of this series could have huge playoff implications. The Detroit Tigers are paying out +140 on the moneyline and I will be plunking down some change there. Justin Verlander will be facing Mike Mussina. I have to go with Verlander (6-2 record on the road with a 3.13 ERA) over the Moose (better lately, but I still don’t trust him). This is the game for the Tigers to win. They will face Pettitte, Clemens, and Wang in the next 3 games. Win this one and they will be OK. Lose it and they will be looking at a possible sweep. I’m looking for Sheffield to break out against his old mates tonight. Detroit +140.
Written by Jon on August 16th, 2007 with no comments.
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Jose Offerman hasn’t made much use of his bat in recent years. That all changed last night when the former major league infielder of 15 years attacked the opposing catcher and pitcher after being plunked with a pitch. Offerman, playing for the Long Island Ducks, hit a home run in his first at-bat and was subsequently drilled by Bridgeport Bluefish starter Matt Beech in his next at-bat. Offerman charged the mound with bat in hand and took out the catcher and pitcher. The catcher sustained a concussion and the pitcher suffered a broken middle finger. Offerman is being charged with 2 counts of second-degree assault and faces possible jail time. While Offerman’s playing days may have come to a conclusion, he has managed to rake in over $32,000,000 in his playing career. Not bad for a mediocre player with 57 career home runs. If he plays his cards right, he could add to his net worth by becoming Louisville Slugger’s next spokesman.
Written by Jon on August 15th, 2007 with no comments.
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Backing the San Diego Padres at home against the Colorado Rockies on the runline (-1 1/2) is paying out +195. That is one enticing payout and I will take the bait. Greg Maddux goes for SD against Colorado’s Jeff Francis. The Padres have scored 12 runs two times in the last 3 games. Francis, a 13-game winner, was hit hard by the Padres in his last outing against San Diego. Good luck!
Written by Jon on August 14th, 2007 with no comments.
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I’m laying -124 on the Phillies tonight as they close out their three game home series with the Atlanta Braves. It comes down to a trust factor. I simply trust the veteran Jamie Moyer at home over journeyman Buddy Carlyle on the road. Moyer has dominated the NL East this season (5-1 record, 2.50 ERA). Although Carlyle has been equally as impressive in his past 8 starts (6-1 record), I think that trend ends tonight. I like the Phillies to break through offensively, win the game, and gain sole control of second place in the NL East.
Written by Jon on August 12th, 2007 with no comments.
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Once pegged as a can’t-miss phenom, the career of one-time flame-thrower, Rick Ankiel, has taken more twists and turns than a season of 24. Almost 7 years after imploding during the 2000 Playoffs, a postseason marred by 11 walks, 9 wild pitches, and 7 earned runs in 4 innings, the lefty has finally made it back to the majors. This time as an outfielder. Much credit should be given to the St. Louis Cardinals organization, who despite his playoff meltdown and subsequent failure in the 2001 season (24 IP, 25H, 19ER, 25 BB, 5 wild pitches, 7 HR’s allowed, 7.13ERA), have allowed Ankiel to keep pursuing a big-league career. Since returning to the big show this week, Ankiel is hitting .417 with 3HR’s and 6RBI’s in 12AB’s. Hollywood can’t script a story better than this. In a day when major sports are being stained by rampant steroid use, referee gambling, dog fighting, and “making it rain” strip club shootings, Ankiel’s story is one of determination, endurance, grit, and class. It is too early to tell how Ankiel’s story will eventually end, but we should all enjoy the story is it continues to unfold.
Note: In AAA Memphis, Ankiel blasted 31 homers and 86 RBI’s in just 100 games this season before being called up to the Cardinals.
Written by Jon on August 12th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks are beating opponents these days, having recently gained control of first place in the NL West. Earlier this season, the Diamondbacks lineup featured a collection of .100 hitters and looked like a t-ball squad, but things have changed drastically in the Western division. The D-Backs are flying high and have Doug Davis on the mound tonight. The team has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 9 games he has pitched. The Pirates, conversely, have lost 5 in a row when tonight’s starter, Ian Snell, has taken the mound. I’m hoping the trend continues and the D-Backs can put up some runs. Backing the Diamondbacks on the runline pays out +150.
Written by Jon on August 9th, 2007 with no comments.
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Well Barry Bonds finally broke the all-time home run record. Good for him. Halleluja. Let’s all take a moment to rejoice. Sure, the home run record, although tainted by his prolific steroid use, is an accomplishment. But let’s not overlook all the things he hasn’t accomplished in his playing career. For all the pills he’s popped, all the roids he’s injected into his ass, all the HR’s he’s hit, and all the MVP awards he’s amassed, Barry Bonds has still never won jack. He’s never led his team to a World Series Championship. He’s never been a leader. He’s never displayed class. So yes, Bonds may have now hold the home run record, but pathetically, he still trails David Eckstein in number of World Series rings.
Written by Jon on August 8th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Washington Nationals head into San Francisco with an improbable 6 game winning streak and actually possess a better record than the Giants. The Giants, however, are huge -210 favorites in this one with rookie phenom Tim Lincecum on the mound. Lincecum has been damn near unhittable in his last 7 starts. Since I don’t want to lay -210, I’ll be betting it as part of a parlay. I’m going with the Rockies at home against Milwaukee for the second half of the parlay play. Colorado is a good home team and Milwaukee is a terrible road team. Payout on the 2-team parlay is +170.
Written by Jon on August 6th, 2007 with no comments.
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If gambling on baseball games that you play and manage in is deemed inappropriate, then I don’t even know how to categorize Pete Rose’s actions at a baseball camp last week. Rose was asked to speak to a group of campers, aged 7-14 years old. Along with dropping the “F-bomb” repeatedly to these youngsters, Rose pontificated about a number of questionable topics. He told the campers that he was (bleeped) off that Marge didn’t leave him any money in her will and that she left it all to the zoo. He commented about how Marge loved to smoke and she would have smoked in her sleep if someone was there to hold her cigarette all night. He proclaimed that he saw Joe DiMaggio in the shower and he saw more of him than Marilyn Monroe ever did. He also felt it important to express that a good friend of his is a gambler. Good old Pete Rose. Class act all the way.
Full Story
Written by Jon on August 3rd, 2007 with no comments.
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Barry Zito and Brett Tomko will compete head-to-head tonight in a “which pitcher sucks more?” competition. Like a midget slam dunk competition, there probably won’t actually be a winner, just a bigger loser. Both pitchers have terrible season records and terrible ERA’s. Zito, the biggest offseason bust of the year, is 7-10 with a 5.28 ERA. Tomko is just 2-8 with a 5.57 ERA. With the visiting Giants paying out +111 aginst the Dodgers, I’m going to have to back Zito and San Fran in this one. Zito is historically a good pitcher and can still throw a gem every now and then, whereas Tomko probably should have hung it up after his 8-15 season in 2005. To make matters worse for the Dodgers, Tomko is a pitiful 0-5 with a near 7 ERA at home this season. Give me the road dog in this one.
Written by Jon on August 2nd, 2007 with no comments.
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- Chicago Cubs -110 at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. I’m looking for Lilly to outduel Hamels in front of a fired-up Wrigley Field crowd. A win moves the Cubs to first place. Hamels has been roughed up in Wrigley in his short career. Lilly has been solid at home.
- Toronto Blue Jays -127 at TB. Dustin McGowan is a star in the making. Sure he struggles on the road at times, but Tampa Bay starter Andy Sonnanstine just plain struggles. The Devil Rays are just 1-9 in Sonnanstine’s starts this season.
Written by Jon on July 30th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Tigers, behind 10-2 Jeremy Bonderman, attempt to avoid the sweep on the road against the LA Angels tonight. The Angels will look to close out the series with relief pitcher Dustin Moseley. With Bartolo Colon on the DL, Moseley gets the rare start. The cost is -136 to back the Tigers on the moneyline, but if you like them on the runline like I do, the payout shoots to +120 or so. I like the Tigers offense to come to life tonight and pounce on Moseley early. Another option is to play the over/under line. The over is a whopping 7-0 this season when these two teams spar. The line is set at 9.5 runs, but the over seems too obvious a play that I am staying away. Good luck!
Written by Jon on July 29th, 2007 with no comments.
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The Red Sox are 4-0 against the last place Tampa Bay Devil Rays this season. John Lester, returning from his battle against cancer, is making his second start of the season after pitching 6 solid innings against a good Cleveland offense in his 2007 debut. Lester gave up only 2 runs on 5 hits, while striking out 6. Tampa Bay’s James Shields, meanwhile, has gone 2-6 in his last 8 outings and looked like crap in many of those starts. Perhaps his arm is tired or perhaps teams have figured him out. Nonetheless, even if he does put forth a good effort, the Tampa relief is capable of blowing any game at any given time. There are many reasons why the Red Sox should win this game. At only -120 on the moneyline, Boston is cheap to back and provides good value here. Good luck!
Written by Jon on July 28th, 2007 with no comments.
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Mike Mussina has fallen on hard times this season. The 38 year-old rightie sports a record of only 4-7. His ERA (4.97) is approaching Lindsay Lohan’s IQ. The Yankees are a dismal 6-10 in his starts and bettors have lost their asses backing him. And now, to make matters worse, his personal catcher, Will Nieves, is gone. The Yankees released Nieves last week and signed Angels backup Jose Molina. According to Yankees management, Mussina will be pitching to Jorge Posada the rest of this season. The numbers are ugly when Mussina pitches to Jorge. In 5 games with Posada as his battery-mate, Mussina has an ERA of 10.04, giving up 24 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings pitched. Conversely, with Nieves catching, Mussina had a 3.03 ERA, allowing only 26 earned runs in 66 innings. Said Mussina about the release of his personal catcher, “(Nieves and I) had a nice relationship going and did some nice things. It’s the nature of the business and it’s unfortunate, but I like working with (Nieves). It hasn’t been the easiest year for me, and he helped me out with a lot of stuff, got me through a lot of games.'’ Sounds like the Moose and Nieves should get a condo together in San Francisco in the offseason. Until then, continue to fade Mussina.
I like the Royals today with ace Gil Meche on the mound. He has quickly become a very solid and consistent pitcher on an up-and-coming Royals team. KC is paying out +130 on the moneyline. Yankees have been clobbering their opponents lately, but I like Meche to simmer them down tonight. Bet the dog.
Written by Jon on July 25th, 2007 with no comments.
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If you are a Bonds hater, you have the opportunity to fade the Juice-Head and make a few coins in the process. One sportsbook offers a daily Barry Bonds Home Run Prop bet. If you bet that Bonds will hit a home run against the Braves tonight, the payout is +240 if he does in fact go deep. To bet that he doesn’t hit a home run, the cost is -300. Bonds is a career .297 hitter against Braves starter John Smoltz, with 8 career bombs in 64 at-bats. Bonds has been homerless in 10 of his last 11 games. This season, Mr. Bonds has homered in 17 of 79 (21.5%) games started, but most of that damage was done earlier in the season. Good luck!
Written by Jon on July 23rd, 2007 with no comments.
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While I am backing Cleveland over Detroit in the NBA, I will be backing Detroit over Cleveland in the MLB tonight. At +135 dogs, the Tigers are a good bet tonight against the Indians. Cliff Lee, with his 2-2 record and 5.86 ERA, gets the ball for Cleveland tonight. He has only pitched 1 good game the entire year and has been battered around by the Red Sox and Royals in recent starts. Detroit will march out Chad Durbin, who has vastly improved as the season has progressed. His ERA has dropped from 10.54 after his first 3 starts to the low 4’s after his next 7 starts. The Tigers blew a huge lead last night, giving up 7 runs in the last 2 innings. The Indians have dominated at home (19-4) and have dominated the Tigers this year (5-0). The Tigers are now in a position where they absoultely NEED a win against their division rival. I like to back teams that are desperate. If the Tigers are ever going to beat the Indians this season, it will be tonight.
Written by Jon on June 2nd, 2007 with no comments.
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I’m backing Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros) and Jake Peavy (San Diego Padres) in a 2 team parlay. Both teams are rather heavy favorites, paying out very little as straight wagers. As part of a parlay, they pay 3:2.
Written by Jon on May 27th, 2007 with no comments.
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