NFL betting: Week 2 Analysis

My, how perceptions change week to week. The betting lines appear completely different in Week 2 as compared to the Week 1 lines. Before the NFL kicked off play last week, the majority of teams were unproven. You had a hunch, but you didn’t really know who was going to shine and who was going to stink up the joint. The narrowness in spreads reflected this uncertainty. Now, with one week of NFL action already in the books, linesmakers have a better sense of who is good and who is not (yes, Oakland still sucks). Spreads have jumped more than 50% this week, with the average spread in Week 2 standing tall at 6.28 points. In fact, five games feature spreads of 10 points or more. These large favorites include Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago - all home teams. The big question becomes: Can the favorites cover these large spreads? Looking back to Week 1, we find that:

The favorites were 9-5-2 ATS and 13-3 straight up.
Home favorites were 7-3-2 ATS and 9-3 straight up.
Road favorites were 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up.

The dominance of the favorites in Week 1 is apparent. Backing the dog resulted in financial loss, unless you were able to identify the strong dogs and bet accordingly. Another interesting tidbit from Week 1 was the dominance of the Under bet. Playing the under won an astounding 11 of the 16 games. The average total line for Week 1 coming into play, across all 16 games, stood at 40.65 points. That number has dropped significantly to 37.59 points this weekend. So, in effect, the linesmakers are telling us that the games, on average, will be lower-scoring affairs, with the victors winning by more significant margins. As always, we will have to see how it plays out!

For updated NFL lines, check out: