NFL Betting: Week 1 Analysis

Week 1 in the NFL began with a bang as the Indianapolis Colts annihilated the New Orleans Saints by 31 points, easily covering the 6 point spread.  Hope you were on the Colts or at least teased the bet like me.  After scanning the lines for Week 1, it is interesting to note that all 16 games have spreads set to within 1 touchdown.  In fact, linesmakers have set 9 of the 16 games to within a field goal!  The teams can’t be this similarly matched, can they?  Of course not!  The linesmakers, just like you and me, don’t really know what to expect out of the 32 teams at this point in the season.  With great research and savvy money management, a skilled handicapper can destroy the lines in Week 1 and make some serious cash.  My hypothesis, formulated while watching Peyton Manning torch the Saints secondary last night, is just that: the linesmakers are no more knowledgeable than the average bettor at this point in the season.  To collect evidence supporting my theory, I went back and glanced at the Week 1 lines of the 2006 NFL season.  What I found was a gross disconnect between the spreads set by linesmakers and the actual results of the football games:

• The average spread in Week 1 of the 2006 NFL season was only 4.125 points.  This included 2 games that were set at 9.5 points each.   Eliminate those two games from the mix and the average spread was barely a field goal.
• The average margin of victory in 2006 Week 1 was a whopping 11.19 points, including 7 games (44%) determined by more than 10 points.
• The favorites were only 8-8 straight up and a horrible 5-11 against the spread.

So let’s turn to Week 1 NFL betting for 2007.  The average spread for the 16 games this week is a mere 4 points, a bit lower than even last year.  And true to form, the Colts covered a 6 point spread with about 3+ touchdowns to spare.  The games will not be as close as the lines indicate.  Remember that as you place your wagers.  We will see if the dogs dominate like they did last year.  Good luck!

Written by Jon on September 7th, 2007 with no comments.
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